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The Congressional Budget Office publishes regular forecasts of future federal government revenue.
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Revenue Data Sources
Revenue data is from official government sources.
- Federal revenue data since 1962 comes from the president’s budget.
- All other revenue data comes from the US Census Bureau.
Gross Domestic Product data comes from US Bureau of Economic Analysis and measuringworth.com.
Detailed table of revenue data sources here.
Federal revenue data begins in 1792.
State and local revenue data begins in 1820.
State and local revenue data for individual states begins in 1957.
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Spending 101
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Data Sources for 2026:
GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 2.1, 2.4, 2.5, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances
'Guesstimated' by projecting the latest change in reported revenue forward to future years
> data sources for other years
> data update schedule.
Blog
Federal Deficit, Receipts, Outlays Actuals for FY 2025
On October 16, 2025, the US Treasury reported in its Monthly Treasury Statement (and xlsx) for September that the federal deficit for FY 2025 ending September 30, 2025, was $1,775 billion. Here are the numbers, including total receipts, total outlays, and deficit compared with the numbers projected in the FY 2025 federal budget published in February 2024:
| Federal Finances FY 2025 Outcomes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Budget billions | Outcome billions | ||
| Receipts | $5,485 | $5,235 | |
| Outlays | $7,226 | $7,010 | |
| Deficit | $1,781 | $1,775 | |
We use the spending projections from the FY 2025 budget because the Federal government did not publish spending projections in its Budget for Fiscal Year 2026 as originally published in May 2025.
The Monthly Treasury Statement includes "Table 4: Receipts of the United States Government, September 2025 and Other Periods." This table of receipts by source is used for usgovernmentspending.com to post details of federal receipt actuals for FY 2025. usdgovernmentspending.com obtains the data for outlays and receipts from apis at fiscaldata.treasury.gov.
This MTS report on FY 2025 actuals is a problem for usgovernmentspending.com because this site uses Historical Table 3.2--Outlays by Function and Subfunction from the Budget of the United States as its basic source for federal subfunction outlays. But the Monthly Treasury Statement only includes "Table 9. Summary of Receipts by Source, and Outlays by Function of the U.S. Government, September 2025 and Other Periods". Subfunction amounts don't get reported until the FY27 budget in February 2026. Until then usgovernmentspending.com estimates actual outlays by "subfunction" for FY 2025 by factoring subfunction budgeted amounts for FY25 by the ratio between relevant actual and budgeted "function" amounts where actual outlays by subfunction cannot be gleaned from the Monthly Treasury Statement.
On September 11, 2025 we updated the state and local spending and revenue for FY 2023 using the new Census Bureau ...
In March 2025 the US Census Bureau released data on state finances for FY 2023 here and ...
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presented by Christopher Chantrill