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Forecast of Future Revenue


The Congressional Budget Office publishes regular forecasts of future federal government revenue.

CBO: Long-term Outlook for Federal Revenue

Federal revenue will increase from 16.5 percent to 19 percent of GDP in the early 2040s.

CBO Estimate - Federal Revenue

Chart 3.61: CBO Estimate - Federal Revenue

The Congressional Budget Office Long-term Budget Outlook released in September 2020 projects the trends in federal revenue out to 2050.

According to the CBO federal revenue will increase in the next 30 years from 16 percent of GDP in FY 2020 to nearly 19 percent of GDP at the end of the 2040s.


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Revenue Data Sources

Revenue data is from official government sources.

Gross Domestic Product data comes from US Bureau of Economic Analysis and measuringworth.com.

Detailed table of revenue data sources here.

Federal revenue data begins in 1792.

State and local revenue data begins in 1820.

State and local revenue data for individual states begins in 1957.

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Data Sources for 2026:

GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 3.2, 5.1, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances
'Guesstimated' by projecting the latest change in reported spending forward to future years

> data sources for other years
> data update schedule.

Blog

Medicare/Social Security 2026 Trustees Report Released

On June 16, 2026, the Center for Medicare Services released its annual Medicare Trustees Report, which projects Medicare spending out to 2095.  As in the past, the report shows that federal health-care programs will eat the budget.

In this report the Trustees forecast that Medicare will top out at a little above 6 percent of GDP in the 2080s.

On June 15, 2026, usgovernmentspending.com updated its chart of the Medicare Outlook here based on data in the 2026 Medicare Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected Medicare Trustee forecasts going back to 2005.


In June 2026, the Social Security Administration released its annual OASDI Trustees Report, which projects Social Security spending out to 2095.  As in the past, the report shows that Social Security spending will max out at about 6 percent of GDP. UsGovernmentspending.com uses the Supplemental Single Year Tables.

On June 15, 2026, usgovernmentspending.com updated its chart of the Social Security Outlook here based on data in the 2026 OASDI Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected OASDI Trustee forecasts going back to 1997.

CBO Long Term Budget Outlook for 2026
On February 25, 2026 the Congressional Budget Office released its annual Long Term Budget Outlook for 2026, which projects ...

Gross State Product for 2025
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its Gross State Product (GSP) data for 2025 on April 9, 2026.Usgovernment ...

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